Tuesday, June 26, 2012


Yeah, I've been doing this league thing for a long time. And I've even had this blog for a while, but somehow I'm still confused about how some things work. Perhaps a wise reader can un-muddy the waters for me once and for all.

Will someone explain to me the DQ rules for city playoffs? I remember in 2009 Daniel Dolsberry was DQ'd during city playoffs and yet his win didn't even get reversed. I don't remember the reason why, but with city playoffs approaching and with so many key players seemingly in jeopardy, I'm very curious as to what the process is. Will a player DQ'ed in his second match have his previous win reverted to a loss? I am guessing Numbers Guy or some veteran, savvy captain may know the answer to some of these questions? If so, I'd love to be illuminated.

The 4.0 schedule has teams playing on Thursday, July 5th, Thursday the 12th, and then on Saturday and Sunday. In 4.5, they will play on Thursday the 12th and then on Saturday and Sunday. The whole DQ strategy fascinates me, as some 4.0 teams may choose to try to win the first round or two without playing vulnerable players, rolling the dice. One would assume that should a player make to the final weekend, he will be "safe" as the results will probably not be run until Monday. Will results from Thursday (night) the 12th be run in time for players to be DQ'd by Saturday? I would assume so, but who knows?

Friday, June 22, 2012

4.0 Playoff Picture Clearing Up

4.0 playoff qualifiers are almost finalized. Division winners in all but Flight 5 have been decided, they are:

Copperfield-Shank and Whiff
LLTC-Hurricanes 4.0
LLTC-Mob Squad
MPTC-The Good Guys
Lakeside CC
Cinco Ranch Westside-Comets

Flight 5 is between Sienna and Unicorns, but considering Unicorns’ opponents in their two remaining matches, I’d put money on Unicorns. So that would be 7 of the 10 teams accounted for. Everything below assumes Unicorns take care of business; if not, then it’s a little more complicated.

For the three wild cards, WSTC-Phoenix with 82.5% lines won has it in the bag, leaving two spots. After that it gets a little muddier. WSTC-4.0 Warriors are next with 73.3%, but with two matches yet to play (one played last night but unreported), that could go up to 80.0% or down to 55.0% (very unlikely). Sienna Plantation-4.0 is next with 70.0%, no matches remaining. Next is Pin Oak-Falcons at 68.6%, one makeup match remaining so that could go up to 72.5% or down to 60.0%. Lastly, still in the hunt (at first glance) are LLTC-Rolido Boys and LLTC-Columbia Lakes, both at 67.5%, no matches remaining, if you look at the standings. However, since the Acers team-defaulted a match on June 7, this voids all of their matches for standings- and seedings-calculation purposes. This changes Rolido Boys’ effective lines won/lost to 22 and 13, or 62.9%, so they’re out of it.

Summarizing the wild card candidates, since the above paragraph is a little complicated:

WSTC-Phoenix 82.5% (finished)
Sienna Plantation-4.0 70.0% (finished)
LLTC-Columbia Lakes 67.5% (finished), so any team needs to beat 67.5% to get in
WSTC-4.0 Warriors 73.3%, could go up to 80.0% or down to 55.5%
Pin Oak-Falcons 68.6%, could go up to 72.5% or down to 60.0%

Based on prior results against their upcoming opponents, I’d project Warriors to finish at 75.0% and Pin Oak to finish at 70.0%. This would leave Pin Oak and Sienna tied, but Pin Oak with more sets lost which I assume would be the next tiebreaker (but I don’t really know). So I’ll project Phoenix, Warriors, and Sienna as the wild cards. But Pin Oak could still pull it out with a strong closing effort.

Please check my math, it's easy to make mistakes with this stuff.

Thursday, June 21, 2012

The End

Most teams complete their seasons today. Putting aside the HRC match, (a big win will allow them to be playoff cannon fodder) the one match of importance this week is the JAM-Lakeside. JAM will need to get the Jim brothers eligible for city playoffs (should they make it). Unless they're on their death bed, it's hard to see them sitting this one out. It's a home match for JAM, and I would have to think they're prohibitive favorites. I give them about n 80% chance of winning, thus dashing the tiny playoff hopes of the Chancellor's Mob Squad.

The 5.0 division was decided long ago, and in 4.0 there is little drama remaining. DQ's, playoff eligibility and that last playoff berth are the only things of interest.

Monday, June 18, 2012

Under the Radar?

I don't think I've mentioned the Unicorns once all year. They lost the vast majority of their talent from the team which put a huge scare into the National Runners-up, the 4.0 Hurricanes. They could have been very competitive at 4.0 Nationals.

Quietly, they've added a few pieces to their roster lately which seem intriguing. They've got some juniors with a lot of Champ tournament experience. Phi Nguyen had a win this year against Greg Nitayamekin, who's regarded as one of the top 4.0 singles players this season. Kristian Rodriguez is another junior who appears to be rapidly improving. Garrett Browne is another Champ junior. Riley Deshazo had a nice high school resume. The Unicorns still have two matches with scores to be entered. Will all of their juniors get qualified? Will any of them be competent doubles players (usually a weakness of juniors)? Time will tell, but this team bears watching.

Friday, June 15, 2012

Last night

I made it out to LLTC last night and caught a little of the feature match between the Good-er Guys and Hurricanes. I watched a bunch of the singles, which was decent but unspectacular. I think I expected more out of Martinez, given his two wins over Pete Taylor. I've seen both Pise and Cooper play better, but it was a very competitive match. Great win for Scott Foster and Matt Mussenden. The Hurricanes appear to have found a formidable doubles pairing.

Both the Hurricane and Mob Squad 4.0's were out there, but there wasn't really anything interesting going on there. Yawners. I did notice that Zach Salinas played two matches yesterday (was one a continuation of a previous match? Too lazy to look it up). Chances he gets DQ'd before City Playoffs? I'm putting it at 50%. If I were the captain, I would have sat him. Bromley remained on the sidelines.

I'm glad we finally know the playoff situation, or at least most of it. All the second place teams will make it in 4.5, and three of them in 4.0. As far as I know, the mechanism for choosing the 4.0 teams has not been announced. I don't mind that so much. I think it's clear that the WSTC-Warriors and the 2nd place finisher between Lakeside/WSTC-Phoenix will earn two of the three slots. The other one is still up for grabs. Interesting that the Rolido Boys received a default against the Acers last week..if I'm not mistaken, that result should be somehow thrown out when calculating the Wild Card. I don't know the circumstances of the match, but not playing it may come back to haunt the Rolido Boys. Perhaps Numbers Guy can elaborate.

Thursday, June 14, 2012

Canes-Good-er Guys Part II

The Good-er Guys took the Hurricanes by surprise in their first matchup. On paper they were the weaker team, but Cooper, Jannuzzi and Hirvela/Brice came up big. The rosters of both teams have improved since. Jay Schroff, Robert Baker and Mark Bowman(?) are significant additions. The team of Hirvela/Brice are still one of the top duos in the league.

The Canes did not have Robert Plummer or Soong Hay Tam on the roster in the first meeting. Will Tam make his debut this week? He's a huge asset to any team with a glittering history at Sectionals and Nationals. I'm hoping Hersch Pise and Ryan Cooper match up again. I'll give Pise the slight edge despite the earlier result. I'm calling for a 4-1 Hurricane victory.

Not much to note in 4.0. Earlier in the week, GTAC's Iouri Pochoumenski got DQ'd, becoming the third 4.0 player to get whacked. Will there be more? Will there be any late season surprise additions to rosters? For some teams, keeping people eligible and getting them qualified are the main goals until Citywides.

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Blast - Canes the Headliner This Week

It's not a do-or-die match for the Hurricanes, but the surprising emergence of the Good-er Guys gives this one some added importance, particularly if Mussenden is unable to pull out the third set in the resumption of the first Blast-Canes match.

People have written off the Hurricanes this year, and that's understandable given the large number of quality teams this year, but their top 8 can be formidable. Pise and Martinez are a great one-two punch in singles. They've got some proven quality 4.5 doubles players on that roster. For example, they could have the following six players in doubles: Tam, Plummer, Zachary, Mitchell, Mussenden, Morton. Mix and match them however you want, but the Canes can certainly be a tough out come playoff time. If they get there...

The Blast's roster has undergone some improvements since the first matchup as well, with the addition of Cy MacKinnon. Taylor appears to have taken a small step back from his 2011 form, but he's still formidable. Kiser and Richardson have been money. Add in Medford, Berry and Griffin and there's quality throughout.

Still, I think the urgency of the Canes' situation will have them coming out with guns-a-blazing and they will emerge with a hard-fought victory.

In 4.0, the noteworthy match is Lakeside versus the Westside Phoenix. Both teams look to be in good shape for a playoff berth, but at this point...who knows? HTA??? Mostly in 4.0 I will be looking at rosters this week: does anyone get added? Does anyone get DQ-ed?

Friday, June 1, 2012