Tuesday, January 12, 2010

A Few More Stats

Last week I addressed the question, “how much of 2009’s production did each team lose to YE09 bump-ups?” I looked at Mens’ 4.0 and 4.5, and only for Citywide Playoffs matches. This week the analysis is extended to all regular-season matches. Also, since it’s time I took a look at some of my new 4.0 competition, I’ve analyzed 3.5 as well.

In 4.5, the numbers are fairly uninteresting, since there were so few bumps to 5.0. But here’s what the data look like. I have sorted in order from those who return the least 2009 production (on an absolute basis) to those who return the most. Other sort orders may be more appropriate depending on the insight being sought.

Teams shaded in yellow are those that made it to Citywide. As with last week’s analysis, if a doubles line was won by a pair consisting of one returner and one non-returner, the returner was given 40% of the credit for the victory.

In 4.5, it looks like most teams did not lose too much production, as expected. Some stats on the impact of self-rates are shown as lagniappe. It doesn’t appear that self-rates had much of an impact on 4.5 (overall only 13% of matches were won by self-rates), if there is a sandbagging problem you’d expect it to be at the lower ratings.

In 4.0 the numbers are shown below:

Results are broadly consistent with those from the Citywide Playoffs analysis – the top teams have a lot of rebuilding to do, and from about Bear Creek on down the list there appear to be several teams that are relatively well-placed entering 2010.

The real eye-popping results are in 3.5. First let’s look at Citywide Playoffs results:
Two numbers stand out for me – only 10% of lines were won by those who will return to 3.5 in 2010, and 37% were won by self-rates. Clearly, if there is a problem with people underrating themselves, it is in 3.5.

For the full regular season, 3.5 looks like this:

A higher % of lines were won by returnees in the regular season vs. the playoffs, but then you’d expect it since it’s the more-successful teams (i.e. those reaching the playoffs) that suffer most from bumpage. The numbers are MUCH lower in 3.5 than 4.0. I also found it very interesting to see that again 38% of lines won were won by self-rates. I’m sure some of that is legitimate but it just feels high. It would be interesting to see how the won-lost records of the self-rates compare with those of the others…perhaps the subject of a future post.

Those are the numbers, I’d be interested in any other insights that readers can glean from these.


  1. Thank you for all of your effort in collecting and analyzing the league's data. We now have a baseline to compare 2010 against.

  2. Great analysis!

    Important dates for those that are interested regarding summer playoffs:

    City Playoffs

    July 6th, 13th and weekend of the 16th

    July 8th, 15th and weekend of the 16th

    1st Annual Houston City Masters Doubles Invitational
    July 24th-25th

    Adult Sectionals (4.0-open) Dallas
    July 30th-August 1st

    National Championships
    4.0 Tucson, AZ
    October 22nd-24th
    4.5 Tucson, AZ
    October 8th-10th
    5.0 Indian Wells, CA
    October 1st-3rd
    Open TBA
    September TBA

  3. Bear Creek will dominate. We sucked last year but we will be ready to show our true abilities.

  4. Lance any dates and locations on mixed nationals?

  5. Here are all of the National Championship dates

    2010 USTA National Championships

    2.5 October 1-3 Rancho Mirage, CA
    3.0 October 15-17 Tucson, AZ
    3.0 Sr. October 22-24 Indian Wells, CA
    3.5 October 29-31 Tucson, AZ
    3.5 Sr. October 8-10 Indian Wells, CA
    4.0 October 22-24 Tucson, AZ
    4.0 Sr. October 29-31 Rancho Mirage, CA
    4.5 October 8-10 Tucson, AZ
    4.5 Sr. October 15-17 Indian Wells, CA
    5.0 October 1-3 Indian Wells, CA
    Open September TBA TBA
    2.5, 7.0 & 9.0 MXD November 12-14 Tucson, AZ
    6.0, 8.0 and 10.0 MXD November 19-21 Tucson, AZ
    Super Sr 6.0, 8.0 April (2011) TBA
    Super Sr 7.0, 9.0 April (2011) TBA

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  8. judging from the roster for the teams spring league. it is mostlikely the same players the same roster for the summer league. wonder what jason and alan have under their sleeves

  9. I'm impressed with some of the 4.0 rosters so far. Looks like league numbers will be up at all levels.

  10. NOTE:

    I have an opening for a team in this weekend's 4.5 level for WTT. I need a minimum of two males & 2 females to participate. No charge. Let me know if you are interested.

  11. Any previews on this week's matches?

  12. What happened to the Deucebags last night? Losing all 4 lines, with one of the opposing players a 3.5. Gonna have to do better than this to compete in the summer.

  13. The Duecebags will be just fine.

  14. Deucebags have a very deep roster. They didnt have their best line up out and it was some competitive tennis on all the matches. The spring league is primarily to gear up for the summer league.

  15. It's way too early too make any predictions, most players are just getting back into playing tennis after the holidays.

  16. this is not good for the duecebags.

  17. Spring results mean NOTHING. Many reasons for losses:
    1) rusty
    2) running weaker line-ups
    3) experimenting with doubles combinations
    4) tanking, to avoid the eventual protest of ringer
    5) plain simple bad day
    6) other team was better

  18. League is league. Spring, Summer, Winter, etc...I agree that the Summer league carries more weight but you're out there to play and win.

  19. Just a reminder that your USTA rating is based upon the Spring HTA and the Summer USTA seasons so this is the perfect opportunity for you to "manage" your rating.

  20. Managing your rating doesn't make sense to me. It shouldn't matter whether you are at the top or bottom of your NTRP level. When you play, I believe you should play to win. Otherwise, what is the point in playing?

  21. I wholeheartedly agree. Every time I step onto a tennis court, I intend to win. Of course that doesn't always happen, but that is my mentality. I don't understand why people intentionally lose matches to move down in ratings, but it happens.

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  24. Ok guys, let's do the right thing lest you not complain this summer when this guy is playing 4.5. How does a guy play for Univ of Idaho (Div 1) and self rate 4.5. Check out Rob Chalkley playing for Copperfield. If you want the system to work you need to get rid of blatant cheaters. The guy split sets with Brian Smith this weekend at WTT.



  25. Ok guys, let's do the right thing lest you not complain this summer when this guy is playing 4.5. How does a guy play for Univ of Idaho (Div 1) and self rate 4.5. Check out Rob Chalkley playing for Copperfield. If you want the system to work you need to get rid of blatant cheaters. The guy split sets with Brian Smith this weekend at WTT.



  26. How do you split sets when the format is 1 set? Chalkley is good but not anything to talk about.

  27. Chalkley is not the only illegal new player.

  28. who else is an illegal player???

  29. To the Blog director,

    Can you delete the advertisements from the blog. Detracts from the other discussion.

  30. Doesnt matter how good or bad he is. He played Div 1 and is not older than 45. He needs to SR at least 5.5. No questions asked.

  31. Ok let's see all the CField posts trying to defend cheating and lying. How do you answer the self rate profile for someone like him and end up a 4.5 player?

  32. Yeah, I played against Rob Chalkley this past weekend. He's a too strong for 4.5. I don't know the rules for self-rating after just finishing Div. 1 tennis, but I do know that his game is beyond the 4.5 level. My guess is he was guided toward self-rating at 4.5. Nice guy, though.

  33. Jason Petiers is one of the nicest players out there. Let's let him play 4.5.

  34. Not sure how to start a new line of comments, but here goes.

    HTA/USTA singles league is just starting. Why do I always see more discussions about the doubles leagues and not much about the Monday night singles league. Monday's is where the real action is.

  35. Lets go Goldstars, lets go!

  36. Because none of the better players play in the singles league. It is social. Just like all HTA leagues. Noone takes the HTA leagues seriously (except for a few teams who can't win in the summer).

  37. Social schmocial. The point is to WIN. No matter who the competition is, time of year, etc...You play to win. You want to have fun and just be out there? Don't keep score. If you're out there, I'm there to try and kick your ass. Plain and simple truth.

  38. Spoken like a guy who can't win in summer. Keep enjoying your diluted HTA leagues - keep kicking ass!!!

  39. Anonymous, er....BobbyFebruary 17, 2010 at 3:09 PM

    Spoken like a guy, well, I don't know...you didn't put your name or who you play for. I think you're missing the point of playing to win no matter who's out there.