A quick perusal of the schedule shows only two matches that are marginally interesting. The 4.5 battle between the Hurricanes and Nottingham Forest has playoff implications. The first matchup between the two teams was not all that competitive: a 4-1 win for the Canes with all four wins in straight sets. Still, number one singles between Antoine Ford and Jorge Cuesta was 7-6, 7-5 and Old School did not use Quack Bui in singles, so there is some hope for a closer outcome. Barring a blowout, Nottingham Forest should be in good position to secure the Wild Card spot, unless the Deucebags close like a freight train. The DBags still have 4 matches whose scores have not been reported.
In 4.0, the Unicorns battle the JCC Dudes. While the Dudes will not catch the Unicorns (barring an unlikely DQ), they are still in contention for a Wild Card, but will definitely need a win to stay in the hunt. Calculations for Wild Card spots may have to take into account the fact that the MD Anderson Tigers dropped out of the league, allegedly in response to a perceived threat from the Unicorns. I'm really not sure of all the details there, as I had been out of the loop. The Unicorns did add unknown Sheldon Henderson this week. Late season adds are always worth extra scrutiny, as many cagey captains try to supplement their rosters right before playoff time.
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The Unicorn captain is a psycho who threatens and fights everybody.
ReplyDeleteThat Kim guy managed to drive about 15 dudes out of the league single handed.
ReplyDeleteKim is a punk. Next time I see him I am going to kick his ass.
DeleteThe Unicorns are gay friendly. Not sure why you, Greg Dwyer, would spread such false rumors. :)
ReplyDeleteI'm not spreading false rumors. I'm the first to admit I don't know details on the Unicorns/MD Anderson beef.
ReplyDeleteI was a member of the 40+ team that had some trouble with the Unicorns, but again, my involvement with that team was pretty limited, and I've always hated the rule that non-HTA members get their match wins reversed. I understand it, but hate it.
So Gururaj is almost 5.5!! Remember he was one of Freeman's more infamous 4.0 self rates a couple of years ago. Blame them both as Freeman clearly cheated and Bharath had to go home and look at himself in the mirror after beating guys who barely played high school tennis when he was not far removed from playing ITF's. What a bunch of scumbags
ReplyDeleteI had to look him up but he never played 4.0. Maybe your thinking of Sarosh.
ReplyDeleteDouble Trouble v Shock n Awe should be a good one with a lot on the line.
ReplyDeleteHe was a 4.0 self rate in fall league when he first played
ReplyDeleteAs usual, you are misinformed and incorrect.
Deleteis there any team that can challenge the hurricanes in 4.0.
ReplyDeleteUnicorns are taking them out.
Deletevery solid team but idk if they have any guys that has enough talent and explosiveness to step up to some of the top hurricane players
DeleteWith their captain I think he meant taking them out mafia-style.
DeleteYes. Several. But the Hurricanes are definitely favored, as they are in 4.5.
ReplyDeleteEverything is just percentages right? What are the vegas lines on the playoff teams?
DeleteI'm not a linesmaker so these won't "add up" properly, especially since I'm giving them basically zero thought. Also, the finalists in 4.0 don't always play "to win", but these odds are assuming they do. I'm going against the grain and giving the 4.0 Canes a better chance than the 4.5 version despite a larger field because I'm still not sold on the 4.5 team's singles being rock solid.
ReplyDelete4.0:
Canes -300
Unicorns +600
Lakeside +700
Good Guys +800
Ace N Spinners +1000
4.5
Canes -200
ETU +450
Old School +600
Gooder Guys +800
DBags +1000
Anyone I left out either has virtually no chance, or else I simply forgot them! For those that don't know, in Vegas "-200" means you must risk 200 bucks to win 100 dollars profit. +800 means you risk 100 to get 800 profit.
Argue these if you wish...I'm bored again.
As a point of reference, I placed a small wager on Serena to win the French right before the quarterfinals and her odds were -205. At that time, Rafa was -103 and Djokovic was +193 to win the tournament.
DeleteSo, yeah, I've probably overrated the Hurricanes' chances.
I think you are highly underrating Gooder Guys in 4.5s. I think it's something more like:
DeleteCanes -200
Gooder Guys +300
ETU +450
Old School +800
DBags +1000
In 4.0's but I think lakeside and Unicorns have a much better shot than the other teams
Canes -250
Unicorns +250
Lakeside +300
Ace N Spinners +900
Good Guys +1000
You're right. With Brice, Blum, Cooper, Hirvela, Shroff they have a lot of pieces. They'd be a definite value pick using my odds.
DeleteETU has the best 1-2 punch in singles with Zach Marnitz and Chris Lee. Then the combinations of Phi Nguyen, Kristen Rodriguez, Kevin Lotz, Ernie Lai, Alejandro Montes, Arata Yamaguchi and Jordan Silas should be able to pull in at least 1 doubles line. I'm not so sure any team would be favored over ETU's best lineup.
ReplyDeleteZach Marnitz snuck past me. ETU is a much bigger factor with him. We may actually have a competitive city playoffs, which would be nice.
DeleteTuan Tran playing simultaneously 5 lines on 5 courts could be called the "Enter the Dragon" line-up. "Enter the Dragon" >>> "Enter the Unicorns".
ReplyDelete#Rafa #GOAT
ReplyDelete#Nole #GOAT
DeleteMy personal over/under on future Grand Slam Titles:
ReplyDeleteNadal 3.5
Fed .5
Djoker 6.5
I guess I'd say under, under, over.
I will go under, over, under. Fed gets a lucky one at Wimbledon this year.
DeleteWhose better unicorns, lakeside, or Good guys.
ReplyDeleteUnicorns. And it ain't close.
DeleteDoes that include the newest addition to the Unicorn roster?
DeleteSomebody said the new guy on the Unicorns is using a fake name. True or false?
Deletefalse.
DeleteIm not sure the unicorns are really that good. I mean who are their top players and do they have any depth. Saw they barely squeaked by JCC last night
DeleteThe Unicorns are awful. There mystery new guy got waxed last night. Yawn. Hacker's odds should have the Hurricane's even bigger favorites.
DeleteWhat's the hurricane's best lineup, and how do the teams stack up against it?
DeleteHurricanes:
S1 Rossi
S2 Copley
D1 Dornbos/Inting
D2 Leiker/Reeves
D3 Janek/Tuyen
Good Guys - I don't see any of their lines even making it to the 3rd set.
S1 Piper
S2 Sandwich Blaster
D1 Mosby/Olinger
D2 Helveston/Yang
D3 Luke/Wu
Lakeside - Doubles looks like a landslide again. Line 2/3 doubles are probably competitive, maybe Lakeside is favored on 3 and if they sacrifice D1, they have a good shot at 2 & 3. Still tough to see them winning 3 lines.
S1 Jacobs
S2 Hunter
D1 Cruse/Miles
D2 Reynolds/Walton
D3 Lutz/Pascual
Unicorns - I don't see the singles being competitive in this one either, and again in doubles Dornbos/Inting are too much. Maybe lines 2/3 are coin flips.
S1 Lequoc
S2 Huynh
D1 Deshazo/Nguyen
D2 Miller/Paniagua
D3 Fuxa/Mohan
If a few of the Hurricanes aren't available or Lakeside/Unicorns have a singles player that has the greatest day of their careers it could be interesting. It's tough when one team has singles so dominated though.
Maybe there's some self rated foxes in the bushes (Unicorns roster is big, with a lot having very few meaningful matches), or maybe self rates like Copely will get DQed (Did anyone challenge him, his tournament record looks like DQ type results). But otherwise I could envision some 3-2 matches, but the 3 wins in straight sets for the hurricanes.
To answer the original question, I'd probably guess Lakeside over Unicorns in a close one.
I don't know who wrote that, but you're welcome to be a guest columnist any time...
DeleteHow about your 4.5 analysis?
I estimate Copely not to have any strikes yet. Here's how I think his rating has approximately adjusted. He benefited greatly from Janek's fall season tanking in 2012. I expect to see another out of line result to get him qualified for the playoffs.
Delete3.81
3.88
3.90
3.92
3.89
3.92
3.95
3.92
4.5
DeleteHurricanes
S1 Taylor
S2 Martinez
D1 Odion/Mertz
D2 Mussenden/Burrman
D3 Hung/Tuan
Good-er Guys Singles are competitive, maybe a split; Cooper is playing well. Brice/Hirvela in a close one. D2/D3 are competitive but a Hurricane Edge. Canes 3-2, but close enough Good-er Guys could get the upset.
S1 Cooper
S2 Shroff
D1 Brice/Hirvela
D2 Toole/Armen
D3 Le/Blum
Unicorns Singles split, D1 is a tossup, D2 is Unicorns, D3 is Canes. Probably comes down to D1, slight edge to canes.
S1 Lee
S2 Marnitz
D1 Lotz/Lai
D2 Rodriguez/Silas
D3 Yamaguchi/Jones
Hurricanes teams looks average. Dwyer has biased opinions. I'm shocked!
DeleteLooks like GG's chances took a big hit.
DeleteInteresting that the DeuceBags had carte blanche to enter names last night and they chose to enter Richard Westgarth's! David Hall and Javier Chavarria have both only played one match.
ReplyDeleteAlso, when did they change it so that a match can be official with only two lines being contested? I thought it used to be three?