I'm guessing a bunch of you know about this already, but I just found this cool site about tennis ratings.
I quickly looked at the ratings for this year in Houston (basically just checked my own and a few teammates) and it looks pretty accurate at first glance. They have me at 3.75, which seems about right given my mediocre record this year.
Other tidbits: Ryan Cooper the highest rated player playing out of LLTC this year, barely in 5.0 territory.
Chris Lee at 4.47, close to 5.0 but still safe.
Bharath Gururaj honing in on 5.5 territory.
Anyway, if your Friday is as slow and boring as mine has been, this site might help kill a few minutes.
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Cool.
ReplyDeleteWhen do Mid Years come out?
ReplyDeleteUsually around Citywide playoffs. Maybe a little after them.
ReplyDeleteSo, out of 1371 players rated in Houston, I'm ranked number 642. Kind of depressing.
ReplyDeleteI hereby challenge number 641 to a match!
ReplyDeleteIf these ratings are to be believed, Danny Schnyder is nowhere near a DQ at 4.34.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like they are tweaking the algorithms a bit. From 2012 there's plenty of people who ended on the boarder of the levels that ended up slightly differently than expected. I created a similar program, the tough part is the criteria for throwing out a match that was out of line with expectations. Still very cool!
ReplyDeleteAs NumbersGuy pointed out to me, some major weaknesses: no playoffs included (right now that would be 40+, but later in the year it would skew things a lot, I would think), and of course no tournament results included.
ReplyDeleteStill, it's kinda' fun.
So maybe I'm above 642 with the 40+ postseason figured in!!!? Probably not.
I wonder if this will encourage tanking or discourage it. On one hand if know your exact rating you can try to get to a 'near-by' ranking level. On the other hand, people who aren't close to getting bumped down or up might tank less? Probably a wash.
ReplyDeleteIt will definitely be an interesting recruiting tool though.
Chris Lee wouldn't be safe at 4.47 would he? once you reach anything above 4.5 that means you go to the next level which is 5.0.
ReplyDeleteYou get 3 strikes. So he has to get >= 4.5 and remain there for 3 matches in a row.
DeleteTemporarily safe. Would not get a strike if he was below 4.5.
ReplyDeleteSo I wrote some scripts to calculate the average level of player on the teams in 4.0. I also calculated the average level of the top 8 players on each team and the top player as a tie breaker. It's not perfect because it excludes players who didn't show up in the site's ratings. Here's my power rankings based on the results. Is Lakeside the best? Their top 8 players all seem to have great results.
ReplyDeletelakeside Average = 3.91, Top 8 = 3.99, Top 1 = 4.10
shock_n_awe Average = 3.84, Top 8 = 3.93, Top 1 = 4.09
unicorns Average = 3.84, Top 8 = 3.94, Top 1 = 4.05
hurricanes Average = 3.82, Top 8 = 3.94, Top 1 = 4.16
warriors Average = 3.82, Top 8 = 3.86, Top 1 = 3.99
ace_n_spinners Average = 3.81, Top 8 = 3.92, Top 1 = 4.08
good_guys Average = 3.81, Top 8 = 3.86, Top 1 = 3.93
sienna Average = 3.80, Top 8 = 3.90, Top 1 = 4.10
comets Average = 3.74, Top 8 = 3.80, Top 1 = 3.96
thors Average = 3.74, Top 8 = 3.80, Top 1 = 3.90
controlled_terror Average = 3.72, Top 8 = 3.83, Top 1 = 4.06
spin_drs Average = 3.71, Top 8 = 3.87, Top 1 = 4.00
aces Average = 3.70, Top 8 = 3.79, Top 1 = 3.85
hawkeyes Average = 3.69, Top 8 = 3.79, Top 1 = 3.93
acers Average = 3.69, Top 8 = 3.75, Top 1 = 3.92
double_trouble Average = 3.67, Top 8 = 3.78, Top 1 = 3.88
hrc Average = 3.66, Top 8 = 3.76, Top 1 = 4.04
columbia_lakes Average = 3.66, Top 8 = 3.73, Top 1 = 3.95
dudes Average = 3.64, Top 8 = 3.83, Top 1 = 3.98
rolido_boys Average = 3.64, Top 8 = 3.70, Top 1 = 3.85
dawgs Average = 3.62, Top 8 = 3.73, Top 1 = 3.83
tiger Average = 3.60, Top 8 = 3.60, Top 1 = 3.79
falcons Average = 3.58, Top 8 = 3.67, Top 1 = 3.89
predators Average = 3.56, Top 8 = 3.76, Top 1 = 4.05
stars Average = 3.55, Top 8 = 3.70, Top 1 = 3.80
aches_n_pains Average = 3.49, Top 8 = 3.67, Top 1 = 3.76
lions Average = 3.49, Top 8 = 3.58, Top 1 = 3.75
hackers Average = 3.47, Top 8 = 3.64, Top 1 = 3.80
corporate Average = 3.44, Top 8 = 3.80, Top 1 = 3.58
hustlers Average = 3.44, Top 8 = 3.53, Top 1 = 3.73
wranglers Average = 3.42, Top 8 = 3.57, Top 1 = 4.10
cobra_kai Average = 3.42, Top 8 = 3.50, Top 1 = 3.79
poachers Average = 3.35, Top 8 = 3.55, Top 1 = 3.74
quail_valley Average = 3.21, Top 8 = 3.30, Top 1 = 3.59
Maybe it's easier to look at one at a time. Rankings based on entire team:
Deletelakeside 3.91
shock_n_awe 3.84
unicorns 3.84
warriors 3.82
hurricanes 3.82
ace_n_spinners 3.81
good_guys 3.81
sienna 3.80
comets 3.74
thors 3.74
controlled_terror 3.72
spin_drs 3.71
aces 3.70
acers 3.69
hawkeyes 3.69
double_trouble 3.67
columbia_lakes 3.66
hrc 3.66
rolido_boys 3.64
dudes 3.64
dawgs 3.62
tiger 3.60
falcons 3.58
predators 3.56
stars 3.55
lions 3.49
aches_n_pains 3.49
hackers 3.47
corporate 3.44
hustlers 3.44
wranglers 3.42
cobra_kai 3.42
poachers 3.35
quail_valley 3.21
Top 8:
Deletelakeside 3.99
unicorns 3.94
hurricanes 3.94
shock_n_awe 3.93
ace_n_spinners 3.92
sienna 3.90
spin_drs 3.87
good_guys 3.86
warriors 3.86
controlled_terror 3.83
dudes 3.83
comets 3.80
thors 3.80
hawkeyes 3.79
aces 3.79
double_trouble 3.78
hrc 3.76
predators 3.76
acers 3.75
dawgs 3.73
columbia_lakes 3.73
rolido_boys 3.70
stars 3.70
aches_n_pains 3.67
falcons 3.67
hackers 3.64
tiger 3.60
lions 3.58
wranglers 3.57
poachers 3.55
hustlers 3.53
cobra_kai 3.50
quail_valley 3.30
corporate 0.00
impressive work...
ReplyDeleteyou forgot, however, to mention that the data is skewed since all the hurricane are players tanked last year and continue to do so at every opportunity.
Awesome.
ReplyDeleteTop 4, guess you only need 4 to win:
ReplyDeletelakeside 4.05
hurricanes 4.04
unicorns 4.01
ace_n_spinners 4.00
shock_n_awe 3.99
sienna 3.97
predators 3.95
controlled_terror 3.94
good_guys 3.93
spin_drs 3.92
comets 3.90
dudes 3.90
warriors 3.89
hrc 3.87
thors 3.86
hawkeyes 3.86
columbia_lakes 3.85
double_trouble 3.84
acers 3.83
aces 3.83
dawgs 3.81
falcons 3.76
tiger 3.75
stars 3.74
rolido_boys 3.74
hackers 3.72
aches_n_pains 3.71
lions 3.67
wranglers 3.67
poachers 3.65
hustlers 3.62
cobra_kai 3.61
corporate 3.47
quail_valley 3.42
4.5's
ReplyDeleteAll Players:
deucebags 4.31
hurricanes 4.29
old_school 4.28
gooder_guys 4.27
gypsies 4.21
black_sheep 4.20
blast 4.20
unicorns 4.18
lobsters 4.17
lakeside 4.15
serve_folley 4.15
hrc 4.13
hulks 4.10
clambakes 4.04
ace_king 4.00
gautamizers 3.96
net_crushers 3.86
Top 8:
deucebags 4.40
gooder_guys 4.39
black_sheep 4.38
hurricanes 4.38
old_school 4.36
unicorns 4.33
blast 4.30
gypsies 4.29
hrc 4.28
serve_folley 4.26
lakeside 4.25
lobsters 4.23
hulks 4.22
gautamizers 4.19
ace_king 4.11
clambakes 4.10
net_crushers 4.05
Top 4:
deucebags 4.50
gooder_guys 4.48
hurricanes 4.46
black_sheep 4.45
old_school 4.44
blast 4.38
unicorns 4.38
serve_folley 4.38
gypsies 4.35
hrc 4.34
lakeside 4.32
lobsters 4.30
hulks 4.27
gautamizers 4.26
ace_king 4.22
clambakes 4.21
net_crushers 4.15
It looks like Unicorns beat expectations this season and Deucebags/Black Sheep under performed.
DeleteFantastic. Looks like ratings correlate to team success better in 4.0 than 4.5.
ReplyDeleteMy hat is off to you. Superb work.
ReplyDeleteOk I tried to predict Mixed doubles team strengths. I took the average of the men on the team and the average of the ladies and took the average of those 2 numbers. Here's the 8.0 results.
ReplyDeleteA few teams had all mixed only players or mostly (magic and double_deuces) so I exclude those. It looks like it's doing an OK job predicting so far, with the exception of ravensway:
bad_aces 3.91
dao 3.87
ravensway 3.85
mixed_rice 3.81
weekend_aces 3.79
net_assets_b 3.76
jam 3.76
split_sets 3.75
d_team 3.75
new_territory 3.73
crush 3.68
ace_n_spinners 3.67
fuzz_busters 3.65
wilchester 3.65
sienna 3.63
deuces_wild 3.63
mixed_signals 3.62
avengers 3.62
mixologist_too 3.60
net_assets 3.60
green_lanterns 3.53
mixed_drinkers 3.53
gtac 3.52
leftovers 3.45
My predictions with this info:
Division 1 - Weekend Aces win the division getting the #5 seed. Ravensway comes back and ends up 2nd, grabbing a playoff spot at #7.
Division 2 - Bad Aces win the division and end up with #2 playoff seed. Mixed rice blows away everyone besides bad aces and ends up top wild card with #6 seed.
Division 3 - Net Assets B wins the division easily, but mostly from the weakest competition in the league. Probably end up undeserving #1 playoff seed.
Division 4 - Ace N Spinners wins the division close grabbing the #4 playoff spot. Other teams miss playoffs from small divisions.
Division 5 - Westside Dao wins the division, but competition is stiff so they garner the #3 seed in playoffs. Jam fight's its way up to the #8 playoff spot.
So playoffs:
Group 1 is: Net Assets B (1), Ace n Spinners (4), Weekend Aces (5), Jam (8)
Group 2 is: Bad Aces (2), Dao (3), Mixed Rice (6), Ravensway (7)
Then it looks like Bad Aces demolishes Weekend Aces in the finale.
Long season to play, but predictions are fun.
You really think there is going to be 8 teams in the playoffs? Historically it's only been 4 with the exception of one year where they did a playoff draw and had 6 teams. Only way they can have 8 teams is if they do a city playoffs on one weekend, otherwise they won't have time to play all those pool matches and a final before sectionals rolls around. I think they'll just do a 5 team round robin. no WC's 4 matches spread out over the MOnth of August and one played in Sept. That's my prediction but I could easily be wrong.
DeleteIsn't 5 team round robin the same number of matches as 8 teams with 2 round robin's feeding into a final match?
DeleteI have no idea what HTA's plans are for the mixed playoffs.