Another regular season will soon be in the books. Several teams still have their playoff fates up in the air and will surely be pulling out all the stops in the year's final week.
There are two huge matches in 4.5. In this season more than any other a team that "squeaks into" the playoffs is fully capable of winning a berth at Sectionals.
In 4.5 Division I, the surprising Katy Coaches enter their last match controlling their own destiny in their match-up with the Deucebags. Pre-season pundits had the Coaches pegged as one of the division's bottom feeders, but many of their players have dramatically improved their performances from the prior season. The doubles team of Norkus/Weaver is 5-0 on the year. The Deucebags' lineups have varied, but it's hard to see the duo of Trey Dugas and Alain Tran on the sidelines, as they've been very impressive thus far. Expect the experienced team of Huffman and Ballesteros to be in the lineup as well. Former 5.0 Aaron Layman saw his first action of the season for the Coaches against JCC and has the talent to match up with any of the D-Bags.
The 'Bags singles players of Borkop and Nguyen would seem to be a level above anything the Coaches can throw out there, though I do think Cooper could beat them on a given day. Playing Layman in singles would be an interesting gamble for the Coaches...I don't know how fit or match tough he is at this point and he was mediocre in his singles efforts last season.
As noted, GTAC can still sneak into the playoff under the right circumstances. Perhaps strategically, Captain Tran has delayed reporting the score of last week's match with Lakeside Estates. The National regulations specify that the Section is responsible for the time limit in reporting scores. I seem to recall that at one time we captains were required to post the score within three days of a match's completion, but I can find no such rule now.
The division III winner-take-all battle between the Lobsters and Titans is equally compelling. This one is a rematch, with Ken Douds' crew taking the first one 3-2. A case could be made that Douds had his top lineup in that match: Ford and Jim in singles and Burrmann/Day, Hiemstra/Herr and Marco/Douds in doubles. Copperfield used Salinas and David Kent in singles as they were missing Martinez and McMullan and yet still extended the Titans to a third set breaker in each line they dropped (1S, 1D and 2S).
The match is being played at Copperfield. Major league baseball teams have won 54.7% of their home games since 2005. NBA and NFL numbers are most assuredly higher. I wonder what the figures are for our local USTA league. Stat Guy? In a matchup this tight, it might just make a difference.
In 4.0 Division II the Acers vs. Good Guys is the match that matters. West Side is NOT going to lose to Wilchester, so SAP and Double Trouble are totally reliant on the Good Guys. The Good Guys are 2-5, but have had hard luck and in fact have won about half of their lines and extended SAP, Double Trouble and West Side to 3-2. The reason that they're dangerous is that they have a couple of guys who are top notch 4.0's. Andy Sherbondy is 5-1 on the season and has been a rock at line 2 singles. If the Acers use their (in my opinion) best lineup, he would match up with Dan Le, who is a very competent 4.0. If the Acers put top singles player David Romero in doubles and move Le to line one singles, Sherbondy would be favored over anyone else. The Good Guys other star, Srdjan Blum, generally pairs with Andrew Helvenston at line one. The pair is undefeated on the year, and Sherbondy's only loss in singles was to disqualified Jason Allen. Don Obenrader and Marcus Robinson have been solid in doubles for the Acers this year, though there's been little pattern to the Acers' top doubles pairings.
4.0 Division IV still has 3 teams vying for second place, but no dramatic head-to-head matchups in the season's final week. One very mediocre team will qualify for the playoffs and will be fodder for Lakeside and others in the Citywide Championships.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Having played both Katy and the Deucebags, my prediction is that the Deucebags will dominate in singles. Cooper is good, but Borkop and Nguyen are better (in my opinion). I expect it 2-0 Deucebags in singles.
ReplyDeleteKaty will be more competitive in doubles. They have two good lines, but their third line is weaker. I think that the Deucebags doubles lines are very good overall so I expect a 2-1 split either way.
My final prediction is 4-1 Deucebags with their superior experience playing a key role.
The D-Bags may put Ward in at singles, which would result in a split in singles.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure I'd play Borkop in singles if I was Alain. If he gets matched up with a former 5.0 with a presumably high 4.5 rating and wins (doesn't matter what the score is) he'll most likely be DQ'd. Could be in the scenario of winning the match on Thursday night and turn around on Friday morning and find their JCC and GTAC wins turned into losses. So it wouldn't matter if D-bags won 5-0 against Katy Coaches, GTAC would be in the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteIts risky to put him in the lineup at all but I hope he does.
If your season is on the line, then you have to play the best players that are availalbe. I you leave Borkop out and you lose the match, then it's fishing time with Kenny Smith. So what good is protecting his rating if the team does not advance out of the flight?
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see what the Coaches do. They may play Layman/Cooper at #3 doubles and try to sweep in doubles.
ReplyDeleteTo play or not play Borkop is the most interesting decision of the season. I think they will win without him, but it's risky.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if Tran is holding back score reporting to somehow protect Borkop or if he's trying to keep GTAC and Coaches in the dark. Or maybe he is just lazy.
Just curious - Can a player get DQ'ed in the playoffs, or are they safe once the regular season is over?
ReplyDeleteAny player is at risk until nationals. There are no DQ's at nationals.
ReplyDeletecooper is a good singles player and has beaten good players. i would play cooper in singles against hung or borkop. i think cooper has a slight advantage over hung, and borkop has a slight advantage over cooper.
ReplyDeleteI don't think Cooper has the advantage against either Hung or Borkop.
ReplyDeleteMatch between Deucebags and Lakeside Estates last week were not completed due to the lights turning off during the third set of the last line.
ReplyDeleteIf I was Tran, I would bring in a hired gun for this week's match, maybe from the NOHO team, and sit Borkop or play him in doubles. This would give my team a better chance of making the city playoffs and not expose one of my best players to being DQ'd.
ReplyDeleteNow who can I add....?
Nobody. It's too late to add people.
ReplyDeleteThat dude who works at Memorial Park is a Nazi.
The dude at Memorial is a light nazi, but its due to people taking 15-30 minute warms ups, and not finishing until 11 at times. Unfortunately its the hazard of playing matches during the week. San Antonio, Austin and Dallas play weekends and play ad scoring, with some even playing out the 3rd set.
ReplyDeletethe players have to be accountable also. league scoring is no-ads. some players play ad-scoring and that holds up the courts and ultimately delays the upcoming matches.
ReplyDeleteFOR ALL TITANS PLAYERS:
ReplyDeleteif you're playing at copperfield tomorrow, traffic on 290 is a mess everyday, so make sure you leave 1 1/2 hrs before your match. just remember if you're 15 mins late, you could be defaulted
I doubt Letan is the type to default someone for that. He is not a Freeman or Benzon win at all cost type of guy I don't think.
ReplyDeletePredictions for Westheimer vs Copperfield match?
ReplyDeleteHey ken douds, save your team, DO NOT PLAY TOMORROW, let someone else play line 3 besides yourself, it's obvious your game is not good enough to win this line
ReplyDeleteI'm usually at Line 1 ...
ReplyDeleteKen Douds
chances we get the matches in tonight??
ReplyDelete60%
ReplyDeleteWeather appears to be clearing up and we should get our matches in tonight.
ReplyDeleteSome big matches tonight and this is the quietest I've seen this blog. No last minute smack talk?
ReplyDeleteAnyone finish tonight?? Scores in 4.5?
ReplyDeleteyes 70-68 copperfield
ReplyDeleteThat's funny. Poor Isner, got killed today. It was almost sad to see him not moving too well in the 2nd round.
ReplyDeleteAny updates on the scores of key matches when the rains came?
ReplyDeletelooks like blacksheeps brought out the broom against canes
ReplyDeleteCoaches v. D-Bags
ReplyDelete#2 singles - D-Bags won
#2 doubles - Coaches won first set
#3 doubles - D-Bags up in first set
Did Copperfield and Titans get any matches in?
ReplyDeletehow good is davila, blowing hunckler away. no one has gotten more then 3 games in each set. his record is 30-3 for the past two years. those 3 loses were in dubs, so they don't really count. can he be dq'd?
ReplyDeleteWhat was the D-Bag/Coaches lineup?
ReplyDeletedq'd?? seriously? have you looked davila up on tennislink? he hasn't played anybody other than Hunckler who hasn't been playing all year. he'll get crushed by the singles players in city.
ReplyDeleteEveryone's favorite 4.5 played a match for torres this week. He lost too, is anyone shocked. torres is up to his tanking tricks again.
ReplyDeleteIs Schmucker injured?
ReplyDeleteSchumcker is not injured.
ReplyDeleteSorry Hacker, I overlooked the question you asked.
ReplyDeleteI just did a quick look at 4.0 USTA league this past season, I'll do a more thorough look later. Home teams won 82 matches vs. 65 for the visitors, for a 56% winning percentage, scarily similar to baseball.
Anyone know how the Acers were doing when the rain came????
ReplyDeleteThanks NumbersGuy.
ReplyDeleteThe Acers were up 1-0 when the rains came. David Romero had already won his singles match.
GD
Looks like the home-court percentages hold over a rather broad range. Over the course of 15 Houston seasons and 1,144 matches (6 USTA, 9 HTA; 3 of 3.5, 7 of 4.0, 5 of 4.5), it's a 57% advantage to the home team.
ReplyDeleteway too much time on your hands
ReplyDeleteJust 'cuz it'd take YOU a long time...
ReplyDeleteNG
LOL. I like Numbers Guy. I think that this blog has some of the most interesting discussions on the web about adult USTA tennis. Many of the folks that comment on here know what they are talking about.
ReplyDeleteMy opinion is that the main participants like Hacker, Chris and Numbers Guy should have our thanks. On the other hand, perhaps I have too much time on my hands too. ;)
So,Numbers Guy, you sound like you like math so here's an idea for you. We've discussed the USTA's rating methodology here before. One problem is that folks on good teams can throw meaningless matches to keep their ratings down.
ReplyDeleteHave you ever considered having the USTA weight match results based on how critical the line/match was? Let me explain. The USTA knows when a match is played and what the final line score is. As a captain, I know that there are two good times to have someone throw a line:
1. After my team has been eliminated from contention or
2. After my team has locked up 3 lines in match.
Since the USTA has the date that all matches are played, it can compute when a team has been eliminated and use match results after this date more lightly.
Second, the USTA could weight match results in 3-2 matches more heavily that 4-1 and 5-0 results. The basic idea is that everyone should have been trying hard in a close match. I realize that the USTA doesn't know the order of line play, but I think that this still has some merit. What do you think?
Let me amend my comment above for point 1 to say
ReplyDelete1. After my team has been eliminated from competition or clinched a playoff berth.
When are the matches scheduled for?
ReplyDeleteD Bags / K Coaches
No Way Out / Jedi Knights
Westheimer Indoor/ Copperfield Lobsters
What are the match updates? Some critical results to be determined.
D Bags and K Coaches are making matches up this week. They split singles with the doubles matches pending.
ReplyDeleteThe No Way Out/Jedi Knights match doesn't matter for the standings. Division 2 has already been decided. Blacksheep and Canes are in the playoffs.
ReplyDelete2nd place in D1 and D2 are still up for grabs and will be decided by the makeups. With City basically taking up the entire month of July this year the 1st rounds are this Thursday so these makeups need to happen quickly. Let the fun begin
sorry, meant D1 and D3 are still up for grabs
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely ridiculous post. I can't even think of the call you are talking about. I don't intentionally make bad calls. I thought I called a fair match tonight.
ReplyDeleteIt sounds like that match has had some fireworks from the start. When are the doubles lines going to be played? Who is playing who?
ReplyDelete9:43, I believe ALL ideas for improving the NTRP system have merit, or are at least worth discussing. Sometimes ideas that look impractical to implement turn out to be practical after all. Hopefully the USTA is listening. You could probably get some marginal improvement by reducing the weightings when matches (idea #1) have no meaning, and it’d be simple computer code so it’s probably worth doing, and it might help a little. Using the date vs. the league standings at that date would be good data, but the same captains who fake scores would also fake playing order so I’m not sure your idea #2 would work.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I believe the biggest step-change improvement the USTA could make would be to bring back visual verifiers to augment (italics added) the NTRP system. Not replace, but augment. NTRP works great assuming all players are trying their best. Fortunately it’s only a small percentage of players who cheat the system by tanking, but unfortunately it’s that same small percentage who scoop up most of the awards each year – so if you really want to win awards there’s virtually no choice. Use the verifiers at Sectionals, maybe already have a “suspects” list drawn up (the data in TennisLink actually could be used to identify those whose match results exhibit suspicious variances). [as an aside, an interesting idea previously raised suggested that, somewhat similar to golf handicaps, the system could throw out the outlier scores] And it might actually be the captains that I would choose to sanction, along with DQing the player, since the typical self-rated player knows nothing about the NTRP system and must be coached into tanking. Controversial and subjective? No kidding. But I think the computer has been relied on exclusively long enough, and it’s time to add back the critical element of human judgment.
But I’m getting away from numbers here.
I removed a post above. I don't mind posts that say "I saw Person A make bad calls." Players are welcome to defend themselves, and for the most part the community knows who is honest and who is not.
ReplyDeleteI do try to delete anything with name calling, and hopefully Chris catches whatever I miss.
I agree with NumbersGuy that verifier(s) at Sectionals would improve the system in place.
It sounds to me that the Coaches-Deucebags match is the match of the year, by far. I've heard there have been some VERY heated moments already. With the singles being split, and Huffman/Ballesteros having lost the first set in a TB against Weaver/Norkus, the Coaches are definitely in the hunt. I'm not sure of the other matchups in doubles. I believe Tran and Boehck are playing together, but don't know any other details.
Coaches vs Dbags
ReplyDelete1. Cooper v Nguyen 6-3, 7-6
2. Roberts v Borkop 2-6, 2-6 (maybe 2 & 3)
1. Mcillvane/Layman vs Chavarria-Dugas
2. Weaver/Norkus vs Andres/Huffman 7-6, 0-2
3. Tielke /pepper vs tran 1-4
I was at the cooper match and didn't see a bad call from either player in tiebreaker. Cooper felt Nguyen hooked him three times during the match but he kept his cool, never retaliated, and played inspired tennis. It was great win for Cooper.
ReplyDeleteCooper may be a little feisty, but I respect him for signing his name here.
ReplyDeleteIronically, I'll stay anonymous.
Since line 1 didn't start yet, each team can change the team playing.
ReplyDeletegreat win for cooper! like i said before, cooper has an advantage over nguyen. cooper is a clean player and should be praise for his efforts.
ReplyDeleteborkop won 6-2, 6-2 another blowout. can he finally be dq'd. this will send gtac to playoffs
I am fine with people calling me overrated or that my backhand sucks, etc. Heck, we are all amateur tennis players. I can handle those kinds of comments. However, I do not want to be known for making bad line calls. I have played in the league for six years and I have only had a couple line calls questioned. My opponent last night didn't even question a call in the match, so the accusation on this board caught me off guard. There was not an altercation after the match and most of the D-Bags that were at the match were classy. If I made a bad call, it certainly was not intentional.
ReplyDeleteAs to Borkop, he is a really good player. However, I am not sure that he should be DQ'ed. I think he would beat me in a fairly close match, but I have played people in this league before that I think could beat him. That is just my opinion.
The match between Deucebags and Katy Coaches is coming down to the wire in the standings. Still think Deucebags win the match at least 3-2, putting them into the playoffs barely.
ReplyDeleteCooper has wins over Phoummarath and Omon Dibua in past seasons. Anyone who thought he had no chance against the D-bags is crazy.
ReplyDeleteBorkop's "blowout" was against a player who has a 4-8 league record (singles and doubles) the past couple of years, so please get your facts straight before you want to get someone dq'd.
ReplyDeleteThe match he tanked against Phi and Hai should help avoid any possibility of a DQ.
ReplyDeletei was pulling for the duecebags to win, but seems like they are talking too much smack.
ReplyDelete- cooper making bad calls? cooper is a classy player
- borkop tanked his dubs line against hai and phi? borkop got beat
Looks like scores are posted in D2. Blacksheep (winners) and Hurricanes (runner up) are quietly into the playoffs. That division wasn't talked about since it lacked drama during the regular season but both those teams will be dangerous in the playoffs. Hopefully the rest of the playoff picture will clear up soon and the predictions can begin.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone know when MYR will be out
ReplyDeleteDon't worry, you will be bumped up.
ReplyDeleteAny make-up matches going on tonight?
ReplyDeleteIt looks like the Coaches/Bags matches will be on Wednesday. I will update the match times for those interested.
ReplyDeletewhat about copperfield and titans?
ReplyDeleteBorkop did not tank his match. You are right, borkop got beat. Hai and Phi were just playing better dubs that Day. Bottom line!!
ReplyDeleteLines were being called very close in Nguyen and Copper's match on both sides, especially toward the end of last set and the tie breaker. None were obviously in or out. Copper did question one of his own serves that Nguyen called out and quickly called a very very close call of his own a couple points later. Which kinda seem like a payback call to me and the other spectators(Deucebags)... i think that's what some of the fuss is about. I don't think Cooper was trying to hook anyone, but the "when in doubt, call it out" attitude seemed to prevail!!
"signed" ...A Deucebag Fan and Spectator.
Ryan A. Cooper: "When in doubt, call it out!!"
ReplyDeleteThere are a lot of good singles player in league and I have a feeling Borkop will lose at least 1 time during the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteRyan, you claimed "I have played in the league for six years and I have only had a couple line calls questioned."
ReplyDeleteI've only played against you once, but that match involved lots of disputed line calls and questionable behavior. Honestly, it was an ugly unpleasant experience. Sorry to have to be a fact checker.
That is a fair criticism. There was a time where I was really grumpy on the court and probably questioned too many calls. I feel I have worked on that and have shown a lot of improvement in that regard. That is the unfortunate thing about league tennis - you can develop a bad reputation very easily. There have been a few times that once I cooled off, I was embarrassed about how I acted. I am probably not the only person that feels that way. In fact, I saw some 4.0's getting into it last Thursday night. However, I have to admit that some of the things they said were freaking hilarious.
ReplyDeleteThis is 6:03. I'll admit that I could have acted better in that match also.
ReplyDeleteAnyways, I'm impressed at your response. Hopefully, things will go better the next time that we play.
6:03,
ReplyDeleteShoot me an email at RCooper80@gmail.com and we will go out an hit. If I got into with you, chances are you are probably pretty damn good.
having played with Cooper way back in the day, he was not a cheat, but he was intense like most of us. Sounds like the match was like any other league match filled with close calls and good points.
ReplyDeleteTitans beat Copperfield...
ReplyDeleteWhat was the score in the Titans/Copperfield match?
ReplyDeleteWhen a match matters, people always feel like they are being cheated on close calls. I have watched Cooper play a few times (tournaments and league) and all his calls were very fair, even played balls that were inches out. He is just an intense guy on the court and some take that as being a jerk or a cheat or whatever you want to call it.
ReplyDeleteTitans won 4-1
ReplyDelete